Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 36

Deportivo La Coruna–Mirandes

3–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Monday, 20 April 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

42'MirandesC. Fernandez (penalty)
51'Deportivo La CorunaMario Soriano (assist: Adrià Alti)
58'Deportivo La CorunaPeke (penalty)
71'Deportivo La CorunaB. Nsongo (assist: Peke)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Deportivo La Coruna		Mirandes
12	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	6
9	Shots inside the box	7
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	5
4	Offsides	0
52%	Possession	48%
399	Passes	353
335	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Deportivo La Coruna 1.76 · Mirandes 0.89. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Deportivo La Coruna 12 · Mirandes 12; on target 4 and 6.

Referee

A. Moreno→

5.14

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.3%: “Deportivo La Coruna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.00 for Deportivo La Coruna, 0.86 for Mirandes.
The highest double chance value is 86.2% (1X — Deportivo La Coruna win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,781 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Deportivo La Coruna to win64.3%

Draw21.9%

Mirandes to win13.8%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

22	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Deportivo La Coruna lead at half-time44.0%

Level at half-time41.7%

Mirandes lead at half-time14.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Deportivo La Coruna ahead or level85.7%

12 — not level at half-time58.3%

X2 — level or Mirandes ahead56.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1781 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Deportivo La Coruna: at least 11Actual: 22
Mirandes: at least 12Actual: 16

Corners

Deportivo La Coruna: at least 5Actual: 1
Mirandes: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Deportivo La Coruna score1.76

Attack: Deportivo La Coruna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Mirandes's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Mirandes score0.89

Attack: Mirandes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Deportivo La Coruna's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.89 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.8%1–111.1%2–110.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.