Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 36

Cultural Leonesa–Cordoba

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 April 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal Reino de León, León

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 35%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

52'CordobaMatia Barzic Gutiérrez (own goal)
64'Cultural LeonesaBicho
90'CordobaPercan (assist: A. del Moral)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cultural Leonesa		Cordoba
17	Shots	18
10	Shots on target	6
10	Shots inside the box	13
5	Goalkeeper saves	9
4	Corners	8
3	Offsides	4
53%	Possession	47%
400	Passes	350
333	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cultural Leonesa 1.22 · Cordoba 1.36. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Cultural Leonesa 17 · Cordoba 18; on target 10 and 6.

Referee

G. Etayo→

4.78

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.0%: “Cultural Leonesa to win”. Second comes “Cordoba to win” at 34.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.43 for Cultural Leonesa, 1.35 for Cordoba.
The highest double chance value is 72.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,774 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cultural Leonesa to win38.0%

Draw27.4%

Cordoba to win34.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Cultural Leonesa lead at half-time33.9%

Level at half-time42.0%

Cordoba lead at half-time24.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Cultural Leonesa ahead or level76.0%

12 — not level at half-time58.0%

X2 — level or Cordoba ahead66.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1774 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cultural Leonesa: at least 13Actual: 15
Cordoba: at least 12Actual: 15

Corners

Cultural Leonesa: at least 3Actual: 4
Cordoba: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cultural Leonesa score1.22

Attack: Cultural Leonesa score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cordoba's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cordoba score1.36

Attack: Cordoba score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Cultural Leonesa's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%2–19.3%1–28.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.