Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 35

Racing Santander–Almeria

5–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 12 April 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'AlmeriaAdri Embarba (assist: Marcos Luna)
21'Racing SantanderA. Martin (assist: Manu Hernando)
28'Racing SantanderIñigo Vicente (assist: A. Martin)
45+5'AlmeriaDion Lopy · red card
75'Racing SantanderMario Garcia · red card
79'Racing Santander

Match statistics

Match statistics
Racing Santander		Almeria
26	Shots	10
13	Shots on target	3
21	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	8
8	Corners	1
3	Offsides	4
57%	Possession	43%
496	Passes	376
442	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Racing Santander 1.75 · Almeria 1.53. On the pitch: 5-1.
Shots Racing Santander 26 · Almeria 10; on target 13 and 3.
Racing Santander kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

R. Sanchez→

4.75

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.1%: “Racing Santander to win”. Second comes “Almeria to win” at 33.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.66 for Racing Santander, 1.49 for Almeria.
The highest double chance value is 74.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,769 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Racing Santander to win41.1%

Draw25.5%

Almeria to win33.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Asier Villalibre (assist: Iñigo Vicente)

82'Racing SantanderP. Canales (assist: M. Sangalli)

88'Racing SantanderM. Sangalli (assist: P. Canales)

15	Fouls	13

4	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 575 of 859 predictions were correct (66.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Racing Santander win or draw66.6%

12 — any result other than a draw74.5%

X2 — draw or Almeria win58.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.5%).

First half

Actual: 2–1

Racing Santander lead at half-time29.5%

Level at half-time41.1%

Almeria lead at half-time29.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Racing Santander ahead or level70.6%

12 — not level at half-time58.9%

X2 — level or Almeria ahead70.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1769 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Racing Santander: at least 12Actual: 15
Almeria: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

Racing Santander: at least 4Actual: 8
Almeria: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals61.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 42.0%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Racing Santander score1.75

Attack: Racing Santander score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Almeria's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.75 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Almeria score1.53

Attack: Almeria score above the league average (41% more).

Opponent's defence: Racing Santander concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 1.53 goals.

Most likely scorelines

1–112.0%2–19.6%1–28.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1769 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 76 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.