Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 35

Granada CF–Cultural Leonesa

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 12 April 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Carmenes, Granada

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'Granada CFRubén Alcaraz (penalty)
64'Granada CFB. Diallo · red card
68'Cultural LeonesaV. Garcia · red card
90+1'Granada CFJorge Pascual · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Granada CF		Cultural Leonesa
11	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	3
7	Offsides	2
47%	Possession	53%
348	Passes	390
280	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Granada CF 1.63 · Cultural Leonesa 0.82. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Granada CF 11 · Cultural Leonesa 9; on target 5 and 3.

Referee

A. Ojaos→

4.38

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.8%: “Granada CF to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.52 for Granada CF, 0.89 for Cultural Leonesa.
The highest double chance value is 79.4% (1X — Granada CF win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,765 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Granada CF to win51.8%

Draw27.6%

Cultural Leonesa to win20.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	18

5	Yellow cards	4

2	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Granada CF lead at half-time54.3%

Level at half-time36.4%

Cultural Leonesa lead at half-time9.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Granada CF ahead or level90.8%

12 — not level at half-time63.6%

X2 — level or Cultural Leonesa ahead45.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1765 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Granada CF: at least 11Actual: 13
Cultural Leonesa: at least 12Actual: 18

Corners

Granada CF: at least 4Actual: 4
Cultural Leonesa: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Granada CF score1.63

Attack: Granada CF score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cultural Leonesa's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cultural Leonesa score0.82

Attack: Cultural Leonesa score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Granada CF's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.82 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–012.9%2–010.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.