Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 35

Burgos–Sporting Gijon

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 April 2026 at 14:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal de El Plantío, Burgos

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90'BurgosFer Niño (assist: Álex Lizancos)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Burgos		Sporting Gijon
10	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	0
7	Shots inside the box	4
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	4
1	Offsides	2
48%	Possession	52%
427	Passes	468
349	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Burgos 1.28 · Sporting Gijon 0.98. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Burgos 10 · Sporting Gijon 11; on target 4 and 0.

Referee

C. Muniz→

3.86

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.4%: “Burgos to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.24 for Burgos, 0.94 for Sporting Gijon.
The highest double chance value is 73.2% (1X — Burgos win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,761 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Burgos to win42.4%

Draw30.8%

Sporting Gijon to win26.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Burgos lead at half-time32.8%

Level at half-time46.0%

Sporting Gijon lead at half-time21.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Burgos ahead or level78.8%

12 — not level at half-time54.0%

X2 — level or Sporting Gijon ahead67.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1761 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Burgos: at least 10Actual: 12
Sporting Gijon: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Burgos: at least 4Actual: 2
Sporting Gijon: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Burgos score1.28

Attack: Burgos score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sporting Gijon's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sporting Gijon score0.98

Attack: Sporting Gijon score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Burgos concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–013.3%0–011.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.