Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 34

Las Palmas–Huesca

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 April 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

39'HuescaD. Luna (assist: Francisco Portillo)
53'Las PalmasJesé (assist: Viti)
67'Las PalmasEstanis (assist: Jesé)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Las Palmas		Huesca
13	Shots	6
4	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	1
1	Offsides	4
64%	Possession	36%
566	Passes	316
494	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Las Palmas 1.58 · Huesca 0.72. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Las Palmas 13 · Huesca 6; on target 4 and 4.
Las Palmas kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

A. Moreno→

5.67

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.9%: “Las Palmas to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.82 for Las Palmas, 0.83 for Huesca.
The highest double chance value is 84.8% (1X — Las Palmas win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,755 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Las Palmas to win60.9%

Draw23.8%

Huesca to win15.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	19

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Las Palmas lead at half-time53.9%

Level at half-time37.9%

Huesca lead at half-time8.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Las Palmas ahead or level91.7%

12 — not level at half-time62.1%

X2 — level or Huesca ahead46.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1755 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Las Palmas: at least 11Actual: 12
Huesca: at least 13Actual: 19

Corners

Las Palmas: at least 4Actual: 4
Huesca: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Las Palmas score1.58

Attack: Las Palmas score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Huesca's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Huesca score0.72

Attack: Huesca score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Las Palmas concede 29% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.72 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–012.1%1–112.1%2–012.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.