Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 34

Cultural Leonesa–Valladolid

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 April 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal Reino de León, León

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 33%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'Cultural LeonesaLuis Chacón (assist: V. Garcia)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cultural Leonesa		Valladolid
7	Shots	4
3	Shots on target	2
5	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	2
0	Offsides	2
44%	Possession	56%
400	Passes	502
333	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cultural Leonesa 1.19 · Valladolid 1.31. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Cultural Leonesa 7 · Valladolid 4; on target 3 and 2.
Valladolid kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

S. Ais→

4.00

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.7%: “Valladolid to win”. Second comes “Cultural Leonesa to win” at 33.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.22 for Cultural Leonesa, 1.31 for Valladolid.
The highest double chance value is 71.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,751 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cultural Leonesa to win33.5%

Draw28.9%

Valladolid to win37.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	12

6	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Cultural Leonesa lead at half-time29.7%

Level at half-time42.6%

Valladolid lead at half-time27.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Cultural Leonesa ahead or level72.3%

12 — not level at half-time57.4%

X2 — level or Valladolid ahead70.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1751 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cultural Leonesa: at least 12Actual: 16
Valladolid: at least 13Actual: 12

Corners

Cultural Leonesa: at least 3Actual: 3
Valladolid: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cultural Leonesa score1.19

Attack: Cultural Leonesa score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Valladolid's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valladolid score1.31

Attack: Valladolid score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cultural Leonesa's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%0–19.5%1–29.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.