Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 34

Cadiz–Cordoba

1–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 April 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'CordobaCristian Carracedo (penalty)
57'CordobaFuentes (assist: Cristian Carracedo)
63'CadizM. Climent · red card
80'CadizSergio Arribas (assist: B. Ocampo)
90'CordobaIsma Ruiz (assist: Percan)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cadiz		Cordoba
10	Shots	13
2	Shots on target	9
6	Shots inside the box	7
6	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	5
2	Offsides	2
41%	Possession	59%
293	Passes	439
209	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cadiz 1.23 · Cordoba 1.37. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Cadiz 10 · Cordoba 13; on target 2 and 9.
Cordoba kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

M. Perez→

4.17

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.8%: “Cordoba to win”. Second comes “Cadiz to win” at 30.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.20 for Cadiz, 1.44 for Cordoba.
The highest double chance value is 72.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,749 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cadiz to win30.2%

Draw28.0%

Cordoba to win41.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	19

2	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Cadiz lead at half-time35.8%

Level at half-time41.9%

Cordoba lead at half-time22.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Cadiz ahead or level77.7%

12 — not level at half-time58.1%

X2 — level or Cordoba ahead64.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1749 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cadiz: at least 13Actual: 17
Cordoba: at least 12Actual: 19

Corners

Cadiz: at least 4Actual: 1
Cordoba: at least 5Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cadiz score1.23

Attack: Cadiz score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cordoba's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cordoba score1.37

Attack: Cordoba score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Cadiz's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–29.7%0–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.