Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 33

Racing Santander–Sporting Gijon

3–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 1 April 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Racing Santander		Sporting Gijon
10	Shots	15
7	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	13
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	7
1	Offsides	6
44%	Possession	56%
365	Passes	455
289	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Racing Santander 1.80 · Sporting Gijon 1.15. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Racing Santander 10 · Sporting Gijon 15; on target 7 and 4.
Sporting Gijon kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

D. Palencia→

5.00

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.6%: “Racing Santander to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.75 for Racing Santander, 1.13 for Sporting Gijon.
The highest double chance value is 77.0% (1X — Racing Santander win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,744 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Racing Santander to win51.6%

Draw25.3%

Sporting Gijon to win23.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Racing Santander lead at half-time37.9%

Level at half-time42.4%

Sporting Gijon lead at half-time19.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Racing Santander ahead or level80.3%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or Sporting Gijon ahead62.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1744 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Racing Santander: at least 10Actual: 16
Sporting Gijon: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Racing Santander: at least 5Actual: 3
Sporting Gijon: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Racing Santander score1.80

Attack: Racing Santander score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: Sporting Gijon's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.80 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sporting Gijon score1.15

Attack: Sporting Gijon score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Racing Santander's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%2–110.7%1–09.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.