Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 33

Burgos–AD Ceuta FC

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 1 April 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal de El Plantío, Burgos

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'AD Ceuta FCA. Bassinga (assist: K. Kone)
31'BurgosM. Gonzalez (assist: Marcelo Expósito)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Burgos		AD Ceuta FC
8	Shots	5
3	Shots on target	1
3	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
8	Corners	3
6	Offsides	2
51%	Possession	49%
417	Passes	415
347	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Burgos 1.45 · AD Ceuta FC 0.94. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Burgos 8 · AD Ceuta FC 5; on target 3 and 1.

Referee

R. Sanchez→

4.86

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.2%: “Burgos to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.36 for Burgos, 0.82 for AD Ceuta FC.
The highest double chance value is 78.7% (1X — Burgos win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,742 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Burgos to win49.2%

Draw29.5%

AD Ceuta FC to win21.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	6

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Burgos lead at half-time35.3%

Level at half-time43.4%

AD Ceuta FC lead at half-time21.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Burgos ahead or level78.7%

12 — not level at half-time56.6%

X2 — level or AD Ceuta FC ahead64.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1742 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Burgos: at least 12Actual: 15
AD Ceuta FC: at least 13Actual: 6

Corners

Burgos: at least 4Actual: 8
AD Ceuta FC: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Burgos score1.45

Attack: Burgos score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AD Ceuta FC concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AD Ceuta FC score0.94

Attack: AD Ceuta FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Burgos concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.7%1–114.5%0–010.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.