Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 33

Deportivo La Coruna–Cordoba

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 31 March 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'Deportivo La CorunaL. Noubi (assist: A. Altimira)
30'Deportivo La CorunaG. Quagliata (assist: A. Altimira)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Deportivo La Coruna		Cordoba
11	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	8
5	Offsides	1
43%	Possession	57%
335	Passes	446
267	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Deportivo La Coruna 1.55 · Cordoba 1.20. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Deportivo La Coruna 11 · Cordoba 14; on target 4 and 2.
Cordoba kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

A. Morilla→

5.14

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.3%: “Deportivo La Coruna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.58 for Deportivo La Coruna, 1.05 for Cordoba.
The highest double chance value is 76.3% (1X — Deportivo La Coruna win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,739 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Deportivo La Coruna to win49.3%

Draw27.0%

Cordoba to win23.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

23	Fouls	18

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Deportivo La Coruna lead at half-time43.8%

Level at half-time40.0%

Cordoba lead at half-time16.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Deportivo La Coruna ahead or level83.8%

12 — not level at half-time60.0%

X2 — level or Cordoba ahead56.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1739 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Deportivo La Coruna: at least 11Actual: 23
Cordoba: at least 13Actual: 18

Corners

Deportivo La Coruna: at least 4Actual: 2
Cordoba: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Deportivo La Coruna score1.55

Attack: Deportivo La Coruna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cordoba's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cordoba score1.20

Attack: Cordoba score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: Deportivo La Coruna's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%1–010.6%2–110.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.