Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 32

Cultural Leonesa–FC Andorra

0–4

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 29 March 2026 at 14:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal Reino de León, León

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'FC AndorraL. de León (assist: Josep Cerdà)
32'FC AndorraMarc Domènech (assist: G. Jastin)
79'FC AndorraManu Nieto (assist: Yeray Cabanzón)
83'FC AndorraYeray Cabanzón

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cultural Leonesa		FC Andorra
10	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	7
5	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	6
1	Corners	2
1	Offsides	2
52%	Possession	48%
442	Passes	421
358	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cultural Leonesa 1.21 · FC Andorra 1.19. On the pitch: 0-4.
Shots Cultural Leonesa 10 · FC Andorra 11; on target 6 and 7.

Referee

M. Perez→

4.09

yellows per match

0.55

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.9%: “Cultural Leonesa to win”. Second comes “FC Andorra to win” at 30.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.35 for Cultural Leonesa, 1.13 for FC Andorra.
The highest double chance value is 71.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,735 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cultural Leonesa to win40.9%

Draw29.0%

FC Andorra to win30.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Cultural Leonesa lead at half-time26.1%

Level at half-time45.1%

FC Andorra lead at half-time28.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Cultural Leonesa ahead or level71.2%

12 — not level at half-time54.9%

X2 — level or FC Andorra ahead73.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1735 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cultural Leonesa: at least 13Actual: 15
FC Andorra: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

Cultural Leonesa: at least 4Actual: 1
FC Andorra: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cultural Leonesa score1.21

Attack: Cultural Leonesa score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Andorra's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Andorra score1.19

Attack: FC Andorra score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cultural Leonesa's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–010.5%2–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.