Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 32

Granada CF–Huesca

4–2

HT 3–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 28 March 2026 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Carmenes, Granada

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'Granada CFPablo Sáenz (assist: M. Trigueros)
29'Granada CFPablo Sáenz (assist: José Arnáiz)
31'Granada CFJosé Arnáiz (assist: Pedro Alemañ)
38'HuescaSergi Enrich (assist: Jorge Pulido)
64'Granada CFJorge Pascual (assist: Pablo Sáenz)
73'HuescaL. Beltran

Match statistics

Match statistics
Granada CF		Huesca
7	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	3
5	Shots inside the box	11
1	Goalkeeper saves	0
2	Corners	6
3	Offsides	1
52%	Possession	48%
416	Passes	369
341	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Granada CF 1.58 · Huesca 0.83. On the pitch: 4-2.
Shots Granada CF 7 · Huesca 14; on target 4 and 3.

Referee

D. Arcediano→

5.50

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.3%: “Granada CF to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.41 for Granada CF, 0.84 for Huesca.
The highest double chance value is 79.2% (1X — Granada CF win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,729 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Granada CF to win50.3%

Draw28.9%

Huesca to win20.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–1

Granada CF lead at half-time54.2%

Level at half-time37.8%

Huesca lead at half-time8.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Granada CF ahead or level92.0%

12 — not level at half-time62.2%

X2 — level or Huesca ahead45.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1729 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Granada CF: at least 12Actual: 11
Huesca: at least 12Actual: 15

Corners

Granada CF: at least 4Actual: 2
Huesca: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Granada CF score1.58

Attack: Granada CF score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Huesca's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Huesca score0.83

Attack: Huesca score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Granada CF's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.83 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%1–014.3%2–010.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.