Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 32

AD Ceuta FC–Cadiz

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 28 March 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'AD Ceuta FCMarcos Fernández
65'AD Ceuta FCB. Kovačević (own goal)
78'CadizR. Marti (assist: A. Fernandez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AD Ceuta FC		Cadiz
8	Shots	4
3	Shots on target	1
6	Shots inside the box	4
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	2
0	Offsides	6
53%	Possession	47%
370	Passes	332
282	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AD Ceuta FC 1.51 · Cadiz 1.12. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots AD Ceuta FC 8 · Cadiz 4; on target 3 and 1.

Referee

A. Moreno→

5.60

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.8%: “AD Ceuta FC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.54 for AD Ceuta FC, 1.06 for Cadiz.
The highest double chance value is 75.2% (1X — AD Ceuta FC win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,728 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AD Ceuta FC to win47.8%

Draw27.4%

Cadiz to win24.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	19

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

AD Ceuta FC lead at half-time40.5%

Level at half-time40.1%

Cadiz lead at half-time19.4%

First-half double chance

1X — AD Ceuta FC ahead or level80.6%

12 — not level at half-time59.9%

X2 — level or Cadiz ahead59.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1728 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AD Ceuta FC: at least 12Actual: 15
Cadiz: at least 12Actual: 19

Corners

AD Ceuta FC: at least 5Actual: 2
Cadiz: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AD Ceuta FC score1.51

Attack: AD Ceuta FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cadiz's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cadiz score1.12

Attack: Cadiz score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AD Ceuta FC concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–010.6%2–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.