Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 31

Mirandes–Valladolid

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 March 2026 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'ValladolidJuanmi Latasa (assist: Chuky San José)
45'MirandesU. del Cura (assist: T. Tamarit)
84'MirandesC. Fernandez (assist: Rafel Bauzà)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Mirandes		Valladolid
15	Shots	14
7	Shots on target	4
10	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	5
8	Corners	4
1	Offsides	0
52%	Possession	48%
339	Passes	311
263	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Mirandes 1.26 · Valladolid 1.33. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Mirandes 15 · Valladolid 14; on target 7 and 4.

Referee

C. Muniz→

4.00

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.4%: “Valladolid to win”. Second comes “Mirandes to win” at 30.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.16 for Mirandes, 1.35 for Valladolid.
The highest double chance value is 71.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,723 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Mirandes to win30.8%

Draw28.8%

Valladolid to win40.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Mirandes lead at half-time30.2%

Level at half-time44.7%

Valladolid lead at half-time25.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Mirandes ahead or level74.9%

12 — not level at half-time55.3%

X2 — level or Valladolid ahead69.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1723 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Mirandes: at least 13Actual: 11
Valladolid: at least 13Actual: 16

Corners

Mirandes: at least 4Actual: 8
Valladolid: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Mirandes score1.26

Attack: Mirandes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valladolid's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valladolid score1.33

Attack: Valladolid score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Mirandes's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%0–110.1%1–29.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.