Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 31

Deportivo La Coruna–Zaragoza

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 March 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'ZaragozaD. Gomez (assist: H. Pinilla)
20'Deportivo La CorunaStoichkov (assist: Mario Soriano)
86'Deportivo La CorunaS. Mulattieri (assist: Z. Eddahchouri)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Deportivo La Coruna		Zaragoza
15	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	1
1	Offsides	0
55%	Possession	45%
541	Passes	456
483	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Deportivo La Coruna 1.56 · Zaragoza 0.94. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Deportivo La Coruna 15 · Zaragoza 10; on target 4 and 4.
Deportivo La Coruna kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

S. Ais→

3.60

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.6%: “Deportivo La Coruna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.54 for Deportivo La Coruna, 0.88 for Zaragoza.
The highest double chance value is 79.9% (1X — Deportivo La Coruna win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,721 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Deportivo La Coruna to win52.6%

Draw27.4%

Zaragoza to win20.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	6

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Deportivo La Coruna lead at half-time39.6%

Level at half-time44.8%

Zaragoza lead at half-time15.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Deportivo La Coruna ahead or level84.4%

12 — not level at half-time55.2%

X2 — level or Zaragoza ahead60.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1721 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Deportivo La Coruna: at least 12Actual: 12
Zaragoza: at least 12Actual: 6

Corners

Deportivo La Coruna: at least 5Actual: 7
Zaragoza: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Deportivo La Coruna score1.56

Attack: Deportivo La Coruna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Zaragoza's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Zaragoza score0.94

Attack: Zaragoza score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Deportivo La Coruna's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%1–013.0%2–010.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.