Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 31

FC Andorra–Eibar

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 March 2026 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

38'EibarP. Nolaskoain (assist: Anaitz Arbilla)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Andorra		Eibar
14	Shots	5
3	Shots on target	2
5	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
73%	Possession	27%
730	Passes	265
668	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Andorra 1.14 · Eibar 1.15. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots FC Andorra 14 · Eibar 5; on target 3 and 2.
FC Andorra kept the ball more (73%).

Referee

A. de Ena Wolf→

7.40

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.0%: “FC Andorra to win”. Second comes “Eibar to win” at 31.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.21 for FC Andorra, 1.08 for Eibar.
The highest double chance value is 69.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,718 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Andorra to win38.0%

Draw30.4%

Eibar to win31.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	11

4	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

FC Andorra lead at half-time33.6%

Level at half-time47.2%

Eibar lead at half-time19.2%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Andorra ahead or level80.8%

12 — not level at half-time52.8%

X2 — level or Eibar ahead66.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1718 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Andorra: at least 12Actual: 8
Eibar: at least 14Actual: 11

Corners

FC Andorra: at least 4Actual: 5
Eibar: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Andorra score1.14

Attack: FC Andorra score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Eibar concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eibar score1.15

Attack: Eibar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Andorra's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.3%1–011.4%0–110.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.