Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 30

Sporting Gijon–Castellón

4–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 March 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'CastellónÁlex Calatrava (penalty)
42'Sporting GijonJ. Otero (assist: Guille Rosas)
47'Sporting GijonA. Ferrari (assist: Guille Rosas)
65'CastellónJ. Mellot · red card
76'Sporting GijonJ. Otero (assist: Jonathan Dubasin)
89'Sporting Gijon

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sporting Gijon		Castellón
12	Shots	15
6	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	11
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
1	Corners	5
2	Offsides	3
41%	Possession	59%
321	Passes	478
236	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sporting Gijon 1.31 · Castellón 1.45. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Sporting Gijon 12 · Castellón 15; on target 6 and 5.
Castellón kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

J. A. Gonzalez Esteban→

4.00

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.4%: “Castellón to win”. Second comes “Sporting Gijon to win” at 27.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.20 for Sporting Gijon, 1.57 for Castellón.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,714 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sporting Gijon to win27.7%

Draw26.9%

Castellón to win45.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–1

Sporting Gijon lead at half-time28.1%

Level at half-time43.2%

Castellón lead at half-time28.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Sporting Gijon ahead or level71.2%

12 — not level at half-time56.8%

X2 — level or Castellón ahead71.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1714 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sporting Gijon: at least 12Actual: 7
Castellón: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Sporting Gijon: at least 4Actual: 1
Castellón: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sporting Gijon score1.31

Attack: Sporting Gijon score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Castellón's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Castellón score1.45

Attack: Castellón score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Sporting Gijon's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%1–210.2%0–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.