Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 30

AD Ceuta FC–Deportivo La Coruna

1–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 March 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 37%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'AD Ceuta FCMarcos Fernández
26'Deportivo La CorunaB. Nsongo (assist: Stoichkov)
90'Deportivo La CorunaAdrià Alti (assist: Luismi Cruz)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AD Ceuta FC		Deportivo La Coruna
18	Shots	11
5	Shots on target	5
11	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	4
0	Offsides	5
51%	Possession	49%
409	Passes	400
335	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AD Ceuta FC 1.33 · Deportivo La Coruna 1.30. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots AD Ceuta FC 18 · Deportivo La Coruna 11; on target 5 and 5.

Referee

G. Cid→

4.80

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.0%: “Deportivo La Coruna to win”. Second comes “AD Ceuta FC to win” at 33.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.16 for AD Ceuta FC, 1.24 for Deportivo La Coruna.
The highest double chance value is 70.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,709 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AD Ceuta FC to win33.3%

Draw29.7%

Deportivo La Coruna to win37.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

AD Ceuta FC lead at half-time32.8%

Level at half-time41.9%

Deportivo La Coruna lead at half-time25.2%

First-half double chance

1X — AD Ceuta FC ahead or level74.8%

12 — not level at half-time58.1%

X2 — level or Deportivo La Coruna ahead67.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1709 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AD Ceuta FC: at least 13Actual: 11
Deportivo La Coruna: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

AD Ceuta FC: at least 4Actual: 3
Deportivo La Coruna: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AD Ceuta FC score1.33

Attack: AD Ceuta FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Deportivo La Coruna's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Deportivo La Coruna score1.30

Attack: Deportivo La Coruna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AD Ceuta FC concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%0–110.3%1–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.