Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 29

Racing Santander–Cordoba

4–3

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 March 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'CordobaTrilli
16'Racing SantanderA. Martin (assist: P. Canales)
48'Racing SantanderManu Hernando (assist: Jorge Salinas)
50'Racing SantanderIñigo Vicente
62'CordobaIsma Ruiz (assist: Fuentes)
69'Racing SantanderA. Martin

Match statistics

Match statistics
Racing Santander		Cordoba
15	Shots	19
8	Shots on target	9
14	Shots inside the box	14
6	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	7
3	Offsides	5
36%	Possession	64%
299	Passes	522
225	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Racing Santander 1.73 · Cordoba 1.19. On the pitch: 4-3.
Shots Racing Santander 15 · Cordoba 19; on target 8 and 9.
Cordoba kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

L. Bestard Servera→

4.83

yellows per match

0.67

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.2%: “Racing Santander to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.74 for Racing Santander, 1.22 for Cordoba.
The highest double chance value is 74.6% (1X — Racing Santander win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,701 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Racing Santander to win49.2%

Draw25.5%

Cordoba to win25.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,543 of 3,253 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Racing Santander lead at half-time50.7%

Level at half-time37.3%

Cordoba lead at half-time12.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Racing Santander ahead or level88.0%

12 — not level at half-time62.7%

X2 — level or Cordoba ahead49.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1701 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Racing Santander: at least 12Actual: 10
Cordoba: at least 14Actual: 13

Corners

Racing Santander: at least 5Actual: 6
Cordoba: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Racing Santander score1.73

Attack: Racing Santander score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Cordoba's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.73 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cordoba score1.19

Attack: Cordoba score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Racing Santander's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.5%2–110.6%1–08.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.