Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 29

Leganes–Eibar

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 March 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganes

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 33%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'EibarDiego García (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Leganes		Eibar
20	Shots	8
3	Shots on target	6
10	Shots inside the box	6
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
10	Corners	2
1	Offsides	0
63%	Possession	37%
532	Passes	320
462	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Leganes 1.13 · Eibar 0.97. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Leganes 20 · Eibar 8; on target 3 and 6.
Leganes kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

S. Lax→

3.33

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.1%: “Leganes to win”. Second comes “Eibar to win” at 32.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.12 for Leganes, 1.05 for Eibar.
The highest double chance value is 68.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,701 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Leganes to win36.1%

Draw31.4%

Eibar to win32.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,563 of 4,188 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	14

4	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Leganes lead at half-time32.6%

Level at half-time49.3%

Eibar lead at half-time18.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Leganes ahead or level82.0%

12 — not level at half-time50.7%

X2 — level or Eibar ahead67.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1701 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Leganes: at least 11Actual: 14
Eibar: at least 13Actual: 14

Corners

Leganes: at least 4Actual: 10
Eibar: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Leganes score1.13

Attack: Leganes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Eibar concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eibar score0.97

Attack: Eibar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Leganes concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%1–012.0%0–111.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.