Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 28

Sporting Gijon–Leganes

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 2 March 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sporting Gijon		Leganes
12	Shots	6
4	Shots on target	0
6	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	0
3	Offsides	2
50%	Possession	50%
427	Passes	431
337	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sporting Gijon 1.34 · Leganes 1.13. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Sporting Gijon 12 · Leganes 6; on target 4 and 0.

Referee

D. Palencia→

4.20

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.3%: “Sporting Gijon to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.51 for Sporting Gijon, 0.97 for Leganes.
The highest double chance value is 77.1% (1X — Sporting Gijon win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,692 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sporting Gijon to win49.3%

Draw27.7%

Leganes to win22.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Sporting Gijon win or draw77.1%

12 — any result other than a draw72.3%

X2 — draw or Leganes win50.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.7%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Sporting Gijon lead at half-time28.8%

Level at half-time47.6%

Leganes lead at half-time23.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Sporting Gijon ahead or level76.4%

12 — not level at half-time52.4%

X2 — level or Leganes ahead71.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1692 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sporting Gijon: at least 13Actual: 16
Leganes: at least 9Actual: 11

Corners

Sporting Gijon: at least 4
Leganes: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals45.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 41.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sporting Gijon score1.34

Attack: Sporting Gijon score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Leganes concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Leganes score1.13

Attack: Leganes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sporting Gijon's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%1–011.9%2–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1692 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 111 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.