Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 28

Cultural Leonesa–Las Palmas

0–3

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal Reino de León, León

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

48'Las PalmasMika Màrmol (assist: Manu Fuster)
57'Las PalmasManu Fuster (assist: Jesé)
90'Las PalmasSandro Ramírez (assist: E. Loiodice)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cultural Leonesa		Las Palmas
12	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	5
6	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	4
1	Offsides	2
51%	Possession	49%
505	Passes	474
414	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cultural Leonesa 0.91 · Las Palmas 1.13. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Cultural Leonesa 12 · Las Palmas 10; on target 5 and 5.

Referee

A. Moreno→

4.67

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.5%: “Las Palmas to win”. Second comes “Cultural Leonesa to win” at 31.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.07 for Cultural Leonesa, 1.22 for Las Palmas.
The highest double chance value is 69.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,690 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cultural Leonesa to win31.1%

Draw30.4%

Las Palmas to win38.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	16

5	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Cultural Leonesa lead at half-time18.6%

Level at half-time43.3%

Las Palmas lead at half-time38.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Cultural Leonesa ahead or level61.9%

12 — not level at half-time56.7%

X2 — level or Las Palmas ahead81.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1690 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cultural Leonesa: at least 13Actual: 17
Las Palmas: at least 11Actual: 16

Corners

Cultural Leonesa: at least 3Actual: 5
Las Palmas: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cultural Leonesa score0.91

Attack: Cultural Leonesa score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Las Palmas concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.91 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Las Palmas score1.13

Attack: Las Palmas score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cultural Leonesa's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.3%0–111.5%1–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.