Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 28

Real Sociedad II–Deportivo La Coruna

2–3

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'Deportivo La CorunaStoichkov
23'Real Sociedad IILander Astiazarán
59'Real Sociedad IIJ. Ochieng
74'Real Sociedad IIMikel Rodriguez · red card
83'Deportivo La CorunaB. Nsongo
90'Deportivo La CorunaMario Soriano (assist: A. Altimira)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Sociedad II		Deportivo La Coruna
14	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	8
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
44%	Possession	56%
354	Passes	451
291	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Sociedad II 1.33 · Deportivo La Coruna 1.27. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Real Sociedad II 14 · Deportivo La Coruna 11; on target 4 and 4.
Deportivo La Coruna kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

S. Muresan→

4.40

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.3%: “Deportivo La Coruna to win”. Second comes “Real Sociedad II to win” at 29.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.13 for Real Sociedad II, 1.36 for Deportivo La Coruna.
The highest double chance value is 71.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,688 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Sociedad II to win29.8%

Draw28.9%

Deportivo La Coruna to win41.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Real Sociedad II lead at half-time30.2%

Level at half-time45.9%

Deportivo La Coruna lead at half-time23.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Real Sociedad II ahead or level76.1%

12 — not level at half-time54.1%

X2 — level or Deportivo La Coruna ahead69.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1688 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Real Sociedad II: at least 15Actual: 11
Deportivo La Coruna: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Real Sociedad II: at least 3Actual: 5
Deportivo La Coruna: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Sociedad II score1.33

Attack: Real Sociedad II score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Deportivo La Coruna's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Deportivo La Coruna score1.27

Attack: Deportivo La Coruna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Real Sociedad II's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%0–110.4%1–29.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.