Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 28

Castellón–Racing Santander

1–3

HT 0–3

Kick-off: Saturday, 28 February 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 18%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'Racing SantanderG. Guliashvili
34'Racing SantanderÁlvaro Mantilla (assist: G. Guliashvili)
42'Racing SantanderG. Guliashvili
79'CastellónIsrael Suero (assist: A. Mabil)
90+3'CastellónJ. Mellot · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Castellón		Racing Santander
15	Shots	12
3	Shots on target	7
10	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	3
5	Offsides	4
64%	Possession	36%
504	Passes	299
429	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Castellón 1.79 · Racing Santander 1.05. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Castellón 15 · Racing Santander 12; on target 3 and 7.
Castellón kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

S. Lax→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.0%: “Castellón to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.96 for Castellón, 1.04 for Racing Santander.
The highest double chance value is 82.0% (1X — Castellón win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,687 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Castellón to win59.0%

Draw23.0%

Racing Santander to win18.0%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–3

Castellón lead at half-time48.5%

Level at half-time38.7%

Racing Santander lead at half-time12.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Castellón ahead or level87.2%

12 — not level at half-time61.3%

X2 — level or Racing Santander ahead51.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1687 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Castellón: at least 14Actual: 13
Racing Santander: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Castellón: at least 5Actual: 3
Racing Santander: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Castellón score1.79

Attack: Castellón score above the league average (31% more).

Opponent's defence: Racing Santander's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.79 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Racing Santander score1.05

Attack: Racing Santander score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Castellón's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.4%2–111.0%2–09.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.