Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 25

AD Ceuta FC–Cordoba

3–2

HT 3–2

Kick-off: Wednesday, 25 February 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 33%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'AD Ceuta FCKuki (assist: C. Redruello Nimo)
8'CordobaJacobo González (assist: Fuentes)
12'AD Ceuta FCA. Caparros (assist: M. Illescas)
24'CordobaCristian Carracedo (penalty)
27'AD Ceuta FCJamelli (assist: K. Kone)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AD Ceuta FC		Cordoba
5	Shots	12
3	Shots on target	5
5	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	0
4	Corners	5
0	Offsides	3
40%	Possession	60%
300	Passes	452
211	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AD Ceuta FC 1.36 · Cordoba 1.36. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots AD Ceuta FC 5 · Cordoba 12; on target 3 and 5.
Cordoba kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

D. Palencia→

3.75

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.5%: “Cordoba to win”. Second comes “AD Ceuta FC to win” at 33.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.33 for AD Ceuta FC, 1.46 for Cordoba.
The highest double chance value is 72.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,682 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AD Ceuta FC to win33.2%

Draw27.3%

Cordoba to win39.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	17

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–2

AD Ceuta FC lead at half-time34.1%

Level at half-time42.6%

Cordoba lead at half-time23.3%

First-half double chance

1X — AD Ceuta FC ahead or level76.7%

12 — not level at half-time57.4%

X2 — level or Cordoba ahead65.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1682 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AD Ceuta FC: at least 13Actual: 19
Cordoba: at least 13Actual: 17

Corners

AD Ceuta FC: at least 4Actual: 4
Cordoba: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AD Ceuta FC score1.36

Attack: AD Ceuta FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cordoba's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cordoba score1.36

Attack: Cordoba score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: AD Ceuta FC's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%1–29.5%2–18.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.