Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 27

Racing Santander–Burgos

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 February 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'Racing SantanderA. Martin

Match statistics

Match statistics
Racing Santander		Burgos
8	Shots	10
3	Shots on target	1
5	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	7
1	Offsides	5
52%	Possession	48%
469	Passes	420
399	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Racing Santander 1.60 · Burgos 0.91. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Racing Santander 8 · Burgos 10; on target 3 and 1.

Referee

S. Ais→

3.33

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.6%: “Racing Santander to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.44 for Racing Santander, 0.97 for Burgos.
The highest double chance value is 76.1% (1X — Racing Santander win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,679 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Racing Santander to win47.6%

Draw28.5%

Burgos to win23.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	8

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Racing Santander win or draw76.1%

12 — any result other than a draw71.5%

X2 — draw or Burgos win52.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.5%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Racing Santander lead at half-time37.4%

Level at half-time44.1%

Burgos lead at half-time18.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Racing Santander ahead or level81.5%

12 — not level at half-time55.9%

X2 — level or Burgos ahead62.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1679 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Racing Santander: at least 13Actual: 10
Burgos: at least 13Actual: 8

Corners

Racing Santander: at least 5Actual: 5
Burgos: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals43.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,152 of 2,735 predictions were correct (42.1%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 41.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Racing Santander score1.60

Attack: Racing Santander score above the league average (31% more).

Opponent's defence: Burgos's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Burgos score0.91

Attack: Burgos score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Racing Santander's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.91 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%1–012.2%2–19.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1679 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 152 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.