Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 27

FC Andorra–Zaragoza

2–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 February 2026 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'FC AndorraJosep Cerdà
23'FC AndorraJosep Cerdà (assist: Yeray Cabanzón)
51'ZaragozaPablo Insua · red card
52'ZaragozaD. Gomez (assist: Francho)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Andorra		Zaragoza
17	Shots	6
6	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	5
2	Offsides	0
62%	Possession	38%
446	Passes	273
380	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Andorra 1.43 · Zaragoza 1.08. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots FC Andorra 17 · Zaragoza 6; on target 6 and 2.
FC Andorra kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

E. Mallo→

6.00

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.0%: “FC Andorra to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.58 for FC Andorra, 1.02 for Zaragoza.
The highest double chance value is 77.0% (1X — FC Andorra win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,678 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Andorra to win50.0%

Draw27.0%

Zaragoza to win23.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

20	Fouls	18

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 2–0

FC Andorra lead at half-time32.1%

Level at half-time48.8%

Zaragoza lead at half-time19.1%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Andorra ahead or level80.9%

12 — not level at half-time51.2%

X2 — level or Zaragoza ahead67.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1678 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Andorra: at least 13Actual: 20
Zaragoza: at least 13Actual: 18

Corners

FC Andorra: at least 5Actual: 6
Zaragoza: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Andorra score1.43

Attack: FC Andorra score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Zaragoza's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Zaragoza score1.08

Attack: Zaragoza score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Andorra's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%1–011.0%2–110.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.