Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 27

Sporting Gijon–Valladolid

2–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 February 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'Sporting GijonJ. Otero
45'ValladolidS. Jurić (assist: Iván Alejo)
45'ValladolidS. Canos (assist: Clerc)
80'Sporting GijonPablo Vázquez (assist: J. Otero)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sporting Gijon		Valladolid
17	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	4
10	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	3
0	Offsides	1
58%	Possession	42%
522	Passes	381
427	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sporting Gijon 1.50 · Valladolid 1.12. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Sporting Gijon 17 · Valladolid 12; on target 4 and 4.
Sporting Gijon kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

D. Arcediano→

5.33

yellows per match

0.67

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.1%: “Sporting Gijon to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.38 for Sporting Gijon, 0.95 for Valladolid.
The highest double chance value is 75.3% (1X — Sporting Gijon win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,677 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sporting Gijon to win46.1%

Draw29.2%

Valladolid to win24.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

Sporting Gijon lead at half-time43.4%

Level at half-time42.7%

Valladolid lead at half-time13.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Sporting Gijon ahead or level86.1%

12 — not level at half-time57.3%

X2 — level or Valladolid ahead56.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1677 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sporting Gijon: at least 12Actual: 10
Valladolid: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Sporting Gijon: at least 4Actual: 6
Valladolid: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sporting Gijon score1.50

Attack: Sporting Gijon score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valladolid's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valladolid score1.12

Attack: Valladolid score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sporting Gijon's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%1–012.7%2–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.