Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 27

AD Ceuta FC–Granada CF

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 20 February 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 37%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'AD Ceuta FCM. Domenech (assist: M. Illescas)
66'Granada CFB. Diocou (assist: I. Gonzalez)
79'AD Ceuta FCKuki (assist: José Matos)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AD Ceuta FC		Granada CF
10	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	5
1	Offsides	5
55%	Possession	45%
405	Passes	312
326	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AD Ceuta FC 1.29 · Granada CF 1.24. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots AD Ceuta FC 10 · Granada CF 11; on target 4 and 3.
AD Ceuta FC kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

A. de Ena Wolf→

6.67

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.2%: “AD Ceuta FC to win”. Second comes “Granada CF to win” at 33.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.23 for AD Ceuta FC, 1.15 for Granada CF.
The highest double chance value is 70.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,671 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AD Ceuta FC to win37.2%

Draw29.9%

Granada CF to win33.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	14

5	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

AD Ceuta FC lead at half-time22.6%

Level at half-time42.3%

Granada CF lead at half-time35.1%

First-half double chance

1X — AD Ceuta FC ahead or level64.9%

12 — not level at half-time57.7%

X2 — level or Granada CF ahead77.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1671 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AD Ceuta FC: at least 13Actual: 19
Granada CF: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

AD Ceuta FC: at least 4Actual: 5
Granada CF: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AD Ceuta FC score1.29

Attack: AD Ceuta FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Granada CF's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Granada CF score1.24

Attack: Granada CF score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AD Ceuta FC's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%1–010.5%0–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.