Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 26

Real Sociedad II–Malaga

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Monday, 16 February 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 35%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'MalagaDavid Larrubia (assist: Joaquín Muñoz)
24'Real Sociedad IIGorka Carrera
68'Real Sociedad IIJ. Ochieng (assist: M. Rodriguez)
72'Real Sociedad IIGorka Gorosabel · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Sociedad II		Malaga
13	Shots	17
8	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	13
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
5	Corners	1
2	Offsides	1
44%	Possession	56%
331	Passes	424
257	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Sociedad II 1.37 · Malaga 1.25. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Real Sociedad II 13 · Malaga 17; on target 8 and 4.
Malaga kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

A. Fuentes→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.2%: “Malaga to win”. Second comes “Real Sociedad II to win” at 34.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.23 for Real Sociedad II, 1.26 for Malaga.
The highest double chance value is 70.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,670 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Sociedad II to win34.6%

Draw29.2%

Malaga to win36.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	14

5	Yellow cards	4

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Real Sociedad II lead at half-time26.8%

Level at half-time47.7%

Malaga lead at half-time25.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Real Sociedad II ahead or level74.4%

12 — not level at half-time52.3%

X2 — level or Malaga ahead73.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1670 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Real Sociedad II: at least 14Actual: 19
Malaga: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Real Sociedad II: at least 4Actual: 5
Malaga: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Sociedad II score1.37

Attack: Real Sociedad II score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Malaga's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Malaga score1.25

Attack: Malaga score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Real Sociedad II's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%0–19.6%1–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.