Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 26

Granada CF–Valladolid

5–1

HT 4–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 February 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Carmenes, Granada

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'Granada CFI. Gonzalez
10'Granada CFRubén Alcaraz (assist: Pedro Alemañ)
29'Granada CFG. Petit (assist: Álex Sola)
33'ValladolidClément Michelin · red card
40'Granada CFManu Lama (assist: José Arnáiz)
45'ValladolidPeter Federico

Match statistics

Match statistics
Granada CF		Valladolid
22	Shots	8
9	Shots on target	2
17	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
4	Corners	2
0	Offsides	0
63%	Possession	37%
490	Passes	290
431	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Granada CF 1.37 · Valladolid 0.98. On the pitch: 5-1.
Shots Granada CF 22 · Valladolid 8; on target 9 and 2.
Granada CF kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

L. Bestard Servera→

4.75

yellows per match

0.75

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.4%: “Granada CF to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.30 for Granada CF, 0.89 for Valladolid.
The highest double chance value is 75.7% (1X — Granada CF win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,664 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Granada CF to win45.4%

Draw30.3%

Valladolid to win24.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 4–1

Granada CF lead at half-time43.0%

Level at half-time43.9%

Valladolid lead at half-time13.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Granada CF ahead or level86.9%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or Valladolid ahead57.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1664 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Granada CF: at least 12Actual: 14
Valladolid: at least 14Actual: 15

Corners

Granada CF: at least 4Actual: 4
Valladolid: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Granada CF score1.37

Attack: Granada CF score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valladolid's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valladolid score0.98

Attack: Valladolid score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Granada CF's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%1–013.8%0–010.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.