Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 26

Cordoba–Leganes

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 February 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Nuevo Arcángel, Cordoba

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'CordobaFuentes (assist: Álex Martín)
69'CordobaMikel Goti
90'LeganesO. Plano

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cordoba		Leganes
22	Shots	17
6	Shots on target	4
13	Shots inside the box	11
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	4
8	Offsides	1
44%	Possession	56%
338	Passes	421
279	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cordoba 1.43 · Leganes 1.03. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Cordoba 22 · Leganes 17; on target 6 and 4.
Leganes kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

A. Morilla→

4.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.3%: “Cordoba to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.60 for Cordoba, 1.03 for Leganes.
The highest double chance value is 77.1% (1X — Cordoba win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,661 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cordoba to win50.3%

Draw26.8%

Leganes to win22.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	6

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Cordoba lead at half-time26.3%

Level at half-time47.7%

Leganes lead at half-time26.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Cordoba ahead or level73.9%

12 — not level at half-time52.3%

X2 — level or Leganes ahead73.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1661 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cordoba: at least 14Actual: 16
Leganes: at least 11Actual: 6

Corners

Cordoba: at least 5Actual: 7
Leganes: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cordoba score1.43

Attack: Cordoba score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: Leganes concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Leganes score1.03

Attack: Leganes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cordoba's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–010.8%2–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.