Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 26

Almeria–FC Andorra

3–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Friday, 13 February 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'AlmeriaSergio Arribas (assist: Miguel de la Fuente)
39'FC AndorraG. Jastin (assist: T. Carrique)
52'FC AndorraDani Villahermosa
58'AlmeriaMiguel de la Fuente (assist: F. Bonini)
83'AlmeriaLéo Baptistão (assist: Arnau Puigmal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Almeria		FC Andorra
15	Shots	15
6	Shots on target	7
9	Shots inside the box	8
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	5
2	Offsides	0
41%	Possession	59%
338	Passes	507
252	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Almeria 2.07 · FC Andorra 0.90. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Almeria 15 · FC Andorra 15; on target 6 and 7.
FC Andorra kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

G. Cid→

4.33

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.2%: “Almeria to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.90 for Almeria, 1.13 for FC Andorra.
The highest double chance value is 79.1% (1X — Almeria win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,660 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Almeria to win55.2%

Draw23.9%

FC Andorra to win20.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	19

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Almeria lead at half-time47.8%

Level at half-time41.5%

FC Andorra lead at half-time10.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Almeria ahead or level89.3%

12 — not level at half-time58.5%

X2 — level or FC Andorra ahead52.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1660 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Almeria: at least 14Actual: 12
FC Andorra: at least 12Actual: 19

Corners

Almeria: at least 4Actual: 6
FC Andorra: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Almeria score2.07

Attack: Almeria score above the league average (43% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Andorra's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.07 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Andorra score0.90

Attack: FC Andorra score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Almeria's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.7%2–110.9%2–08.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.