Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 25

Sporting Gijon–Huesca

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 February 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

46'Sporting GijonA. Ferrari (assist: Guille Rosas)
53'Sporting GijonManuel Rodríguez (assist: César Gelabert)
58'HuescaOscar Sielva

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sporting Gijon		Huesca
12	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	4
2	Offsides	2
47%	Possession	53%
428	Passes	477
350	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sporting Gijon 1.56 · Huesca 0.95. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Sporting Gijon 12 · Huesca 9; on target 5 and 4.

Referee

G. Etayo→

5.00

yellows per match

0.67

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.3%: “Sporting Gijon to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.44 for Sporting Gijon, 0.83 for Huesca.
The highest double chance value is 79.8% (1X — Sporting Gijon win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,657 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sporting Gijon to win51.3%

Draw28.5%

Huesca to win20.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	8

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Sporting Gijon lead at half-time45.8%

Level at half-time41.9%

Huesca lead at half-time12.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Sporting Gijon ahead or level87.7%

12 — not level at half-time58.1%

X2 — level or Huesca ahead54.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1657 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sporting Gijon: at least 11Actual: 15
Huesca: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

Sporting Gijon: at least 5Actual: 6
Huesca: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sporting Gijon score1.56

Attack: Sporting Gijon score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Huesca's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Huesca score0.95

Attack: Huesca score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sporting Gijon's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.3%1–114.2%2–011.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.