Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 25

Valladolid–Castellón

0–4

HT 0–3

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 February 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Valladolid

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'CastellónOusmane Camara (assist: Beñat Gerenabarrena)
24'CastellónBarri (assist: Israel Suero)
38'CastellónBarri
81'CastellónB. Cipenga (assist: Álex Calatrava)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Valladolid		Castellón
9	Shots	12
3	Shots on target	4
4	Shots inside the box	7
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	3
7	Offsides	2
50%	Possession	50%
383	Passes	392
305	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Valladolid 1.32 · Castellón 1.20. On the pitch: 0-4.
Shots Valladolid 9 · Castellón 12; on target 3 and 4.

Referee

C. Muniz→

5.67

yellows per match

0.67

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.8%: “Castellón to win”. Second comes “Valladolid to win” at 30.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.19 for Valladolid, 1.43 for Castellón.
The highest double chance value is 71.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,654 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Valladolid to win30.1%

Draw28.1%

Castellón to win41.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–3

Valladolid lead at half-time26.9%

Level at half-time46.5%

Castellón lead at half-time26.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Valladolid ahead or level73.5%

12 — not level at half-time53.5%

X2 — level or Castellón ahead73.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1654 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Valladolid: at least 13Actual: 15
Castellón: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Valladolid: at least 4Actual: 3
Castellón: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Valladolid score1.32

Attack: Valladolid score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Castellón's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Castellón score1.20

Attack: Castellón score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: Valladolid's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–29.7%0–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.