Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 23

Eibar–Almeria

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 25 January 2026 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal de Ipurua, Eibar

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90'EibarL. Olaetxea (assist: P. Nolaskoain)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Eibar		Almeria
17	Shots	15
6	Shots on target	4
12	Shots inside the box	5
4	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	1
2	Offsides	2
49%	Possession	51%
409	Passes	451
304	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Eibar 1.39 · Almeria 1.25. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Eibar 17 · Almeria 15; on target 6 and 4.

Referee

A. Morilla→

5.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.5%: “Eibar to win”. Second comes “Almeria to win” at 30.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.40 for Eibar, 1.17 for Almeria.
The highest double chance value is 71.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,635 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Eibar to win41.5%

Draw28.4%

Almeria to win30.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	19

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Eibar win or draw69.9%

12 — any result other than a draw71.6%

X2 — draw or Almeria win58.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Eibar lead at half-time25.4%

Level at half-time46.5%

Almeria lead at half-time28.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Eibar ahead or level71.9%

12 — not level at half-time53.5%

X2 — level or Almeria ahead74.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1635 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Eibar: at least 13Actual: 14
Almeria: at least 11Actual: 19

Corners

Eibar: at least 4Actual: 6
Almeria: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals47.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 41.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Eibar score1.39

Attack: Eibar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Almeria's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Almeria score1.25

Attack: Almeria score above the league average (39% more).

Opponent's defence: Eibar concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%1–09.8%2–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1635 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 64 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.