Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 22

Cultural Leonesa–Sporting Gijon

2–4

HT 1–3

Kick-off: Saturday, 17 January 2026 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal Reino de León, León

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'Cultural LeonesaD. Collado (assist: R. Tresaco)
12'Sporting GijonJ. Otero (assist: Guille Rosas)
16'Sporting GijonJonathan Dubasin
43'Sporting GijonJ. Otero (assist: B. Olivan)
60'Cultural LeonesaI. Calero
63'Sporting GijonPablo Vázquez (assist: Álex Corredera)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cultural Leonesa		Sporting Gijon
17	Shots	6
8	Shots on target	5
12	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
8	Corners	1
1	Offsides	0
67%	Possession	33%
620	Passes	308
540	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cultural Leonesa 1.28 · Sporting Gijon 1.27. On the pitch: 2-4.
Shots Cultural Leonesa 17 · Sporting Gijon 6; on target 8 and 5.
Cultural Leonesa kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

Jose Antonio Sanchez Villalobos, Spain→

7.63

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.6%: “Sporting Gijon to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.07 for Cultural Leonesa, 1.29 for Sporting Gijon.
The highest double chance value is 70.4% (X2 — draw or Sporting Gijon win).
These values were computed from 1,619 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cultural Leonesa to win29.6%

Draw29.7%

Sporting Gijon to win40.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–3

Cultural Leonesa lead at half-time30.1%

Level at half-time44.5%

Sporting Gijon lead at half-time25.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Cultural Leonesa ahead or level74.6%

12 — not level at half-time55.5%

X2 — level or Sporting Gijon ahead69.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1619 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cultural Leonesa: at least 10Actual: 8
Sporting Gijon: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Cultural Leonesa: at least 4Actual: 8
Sporting Gijon: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cultural Leonesa score1.28

Attack: Cultural Leonesa score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sporting Gijon's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sporting Gijon score1.27

Attack: Sporting Gijon score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cultural Leonesa's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%0–111.3%1–29.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.