Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 22

Castellón–Leganes

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 16 January 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'CastellónA. Mabil
88'CastellónIsrael Suero (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Castellón		Leganes
14	Shots	6
4	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	2
5	Offsides	2
46%	Possession	54%
358	Passes	435
285	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Castellón 1.52 · Leganes 1.01. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Castellón 14 · Leganes 6; on target 4 and 1.

Referee

Damaso Arcediano Monescillo, Spain→

5.91

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.5%: “Castellón to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.89 for Castellón, 0.91 for Leganes.
The highest double chance value is 83.9% (1X — Castellón win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,617 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Castellón to win60.5%

Draw23.3%

Leganes to win16.1%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

19	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Castellón lead at half-time30.6%

Level at half-time45.7%

Leganes lead at half-time23.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Castellón ahead or level76.2%

12 — not level at half-time54.3%

X2 — level or Leganes ahead69.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1617 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Castellón: at least 13Actual: 19
Leganes: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Castellón: at least 6Actual: 2
Leganes: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Castellón score1.52

Attack: Castellón score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: Leganes concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Leganes score1.01

Attack: Leganes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Castellón's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.8%2–011.1%2–110.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.