Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 21

Huesca–Cordoba

1–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Monday, 12 January 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio El Alcoraz, Huesca

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'HuescaIker Álvarez (own goal)
23'CordobaJacobo González (assist: Cristian Carracedo)
85'HuescaA. Carrillo · red card
89'CordobaC. Isaac

Match statistics

Match statistics
Huesca		Cordoba
11	Shots	14
1	Shots on target	5
10	Shots inside the box	10
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	7
3	Offsides	0
34%	Possession	66%
254	Passes	498
172	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Huesca 1.13 · Cordoba 1.31. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Huesca 11 · Cordoba 14; on target 1 and 5.
Cordoba kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

German Cid Camacho, Spain→

6.50

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.3%: “Huesca to win”. Second comes “Cordoba to win” at 34.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.15 for Huesca, 1.12 for Cordoba.
The highest double chance value is 69.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,616 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Huesca to win35.3%

Draw30.7%

Cordoba to win34.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	8

8	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Huesca lead at half-time21.4%

Level at half-time46.8%

Cordoba lead at half-time31.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Huesca ahead or level68.3%

12 — not level at half-time53.2%

X2 — level or Cordoba ahead78.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1616 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Huesca: at least 12Actual: 14
Cordoba: at least 13Actual: 8

Corners

Huesca: at least 4Actual: 5
Cordoba: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Huesca score1.13

Attack: Huesca score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cordoba's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cordoba score1.31

Attack: Cordoba score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Huesca's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.4%1–011.0%0–110.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.