Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 21

Granada CF–Castellón

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 11 January 2026 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Carmenes, Granada

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Granada CF		Castellón
11	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	3
4	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	6
3	Offsides	2
47%	Possession	53%
336	Passes	391
257	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Granada CF 1.43 · Castellón 1.31. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Granada CF 11 · Castellón 8; on target 4 and 3.

Referee

Luis Bestard Servera, Spain→

6.13

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.0%: “Castellón to win”. Second comes “Granada CF to win” at 31.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.24 for Granada CF, 1.44 for Castellón.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,614 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Granada CF to win31.2%

Draw27.8%

Castellón to win41.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	14

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Granada CF win or draw59.0%

12 — any result other than a draw72.2%

X2 — draw or Castellón win68.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.8%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Granada CF lead at half-time38.4%

Level at half-time42.4%

Castellón lead at half-time19.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Granada CF ahead or level80.7%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or Castellón ahead61.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1614 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Granada CF: at least 12Actual: 11
Castellón: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

Granada CF: at least 4Actual: 6
Castellón: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals50.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 41.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Granada CF score1.43

Attack: Granada CF score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Castellón's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Castellón score1.31

Attack: Castellón score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Granada CF's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%1–29.7%0–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1614 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 62 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.