Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 21

Leganes–Valladolid

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 11 January 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganes

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'LeganesÁlex Millán (penalty)
44'LeganesM. Jaouab (own goal)
80'LeganesRoberto López (assist: Naim García)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Leganes		Valladolid
12	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	8
2	Offsides	1
44%	Possession	56%
311	Passes	385
253	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Leganes 1.07 · Valladolid 1.07. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Leganes 12 · Valladolid 12; on target 4 and 2.
Valladolid kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Manuel Jesus Orellana Cid, Spain→

5.44

yellows per match

0.67

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.8%: “Leganes to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for Leganes, 0.97 for Valladolid.
The highest double chance value is 73.0% (1X — Leganes win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,613 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Leganes to win42.8%

Draw30.2%

Valladolid to win27.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

21	Fouls	14

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Leganes lead at half-time30.4%

Level at half-time50.2%

Valladolid lead at half-time19.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Leganes ahead or level80.7%

12 — not level at half-time49.8%

X2 — level or Valladolid ahead69.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1613 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Leganes: at least 12Actual: 21
Valladolid: at least 14Actual: 14

Corners

Leganes: at least 3Actual: 4
Valladolid: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Leganes score1.07

Attack: Leganes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valladolid concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valladolid score1.07

Attack: Valladolid score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Leganes concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%1–012.7%0–010.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.