Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 21

Las Palmas–Deportivo La Coruna

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 10 January 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'Deportivo La CorunaDiego Villares
43'Las PalmasJesé (assist: L. Amatucci)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Las Palmas		Deportivo La Coruna
14	Shots	7
6	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
7	Corners	3
1	Offsides	4
62%	Possession	38%
521	Passes	321
467	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Las Palmas 1.28 · Deportivo La Coruna 0.86. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Las Palmas 14 · Deportivo La Coruna 7; on target 6 and 3.
Las Palmas kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Manuel Angel Perez Hernandez, Spain→

8.63

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.6%: “Las Palmas to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.43 for Las Palmas, 0.96 for Deportivo La Coruna.
The highest double chance value is 76.2% (1X — Las Palmas win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,609 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Las Palmas to win47.6%

Draw28.6%

Deportivo La Coruna to win23.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Las Palmas lead at half-time53.1%

Level at half-time39.9%

Deportivo La Coruna lead at half-time7.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Las Palmas ahead or level93.0%

12 — not level at half-time60.1%

X2 — level or Deportivo La Coruna ahead46.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1609 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Las Palmas: at least 12Actual: 14
Deportivo La Coruna: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Las Palmas: at least 4Actual: 7
Deportivo La Coruna: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Las Palmas score1.28

Attack: Las Palmas score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Deportivo La Coruna's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Deportivo La Coruna score0.86

Attack: Deportivo La Coruna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Las Palmas concede 40% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.86 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%1–012.4%2–19.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.