Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 21

Real Sociedad II–Albacete

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 10 January 2026 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Sociedad II		Albacete
13	Shots	20
3	Shots on target	6
7	Shots inside the box	14
6	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	8
7	Offsides	0
46%	Possession	54%
318	Passes	372
222	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Sociedad II 1.70 · Albacete 1.19. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Real Sociedad II 13 · Albacete 20; on target 3 and 6.

Referee

Carlos Muniz Munoz, Spain→

4.00

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.4%: “Albacete to win”. Second comes “Real Sociedad II to win” at 35.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for Real Sociedad II, 1.36 for Albacete.
The highest double chance value is 72.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,608 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Sociedad II to win35.8%

Draw27.9%

Albacete to win36.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

20	Fouls	12

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Real Sociedad II win or draw63.6%

12 — any result other than a draw72.1%

X2 — draw or Albacete win64.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.9%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Real Sociedad II lead at half-time41.3%

Level at half-time43.0%

Albacete lead at half-time15.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Real Sociedad II ahead or level84.3%

12 — not level at half-time57.0%

X2 — level or Albacete ahead58.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1608 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Real Sociedad II: at least 13Actual: 20
Albacete: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Real Sociedad II: at least 4Actual: 2
Albacete: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals51.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 41.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Sociedad II score1.70

Attack: Real Sociedad II score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Albacete concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.70 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Albacete score1.19

Attack: Albacete score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Real Sociedad II's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%1–29.0%2–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1608 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 20 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.