Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 20

Zaragoza–Las Palmas

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 4 January 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 36%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'Las PalmasJesé (assist: Manu Fuster)
48'ZaragozaK. Kodro
88'Las PalmasEstanis (assist: E. Loiodice)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Zaragoza		Las Palmas
9	Shots	12
2	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	3
3	Offsides	5
47%	Possession	53%
393	Passes	451
284	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Zaragoza 0.89 · Las Palmas 1.11. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Zaragoza 9 · Las Palmas 12; on target 2 and 5.

Referee

Damaso Arcediano Monescillo, Spain→

6.00

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.0%: “Las Palmas to win”. Second comes “Zaragoza to win” at 32.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.05 for Zaragoza, 1.12 for Las Palmas.
The highest double chance value is 68.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,603 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Zaragoza to win32.6%

Draw31.4%

Las Palmas to win36.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

20	Fouls	18

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Zaragoza lead at half-time10.4%

Level at half-time45.3%

Las Palmas lead at half-time44.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Zaragoza ahead or level55.7%

12 — not level at half-time54.7%

X2 — level or Las Palmas ahead89.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1603 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Zaragoza: at least 15Actual: 20
Las Palmas: at least 12Actual: 18

Corners

Zaragoza: at least 4Actual: 1
Las Palmas: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Zaragoza score0.89

Attack: Zaragoza score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Las Palmas concede 43% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.89 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Las Palmas score1.11

Attack: Las Palmas score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Zaragoza's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.6%0–112.0%1–011.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.