Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 20

Sporting Gijon–Malaga

1–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 4 January 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 21%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'MalagaChupe (assist: David Larrubia)
58'MalagaA. Nino
81'Sporting GijonJ. Otero (penalty)
85'Sporting GijonB. Olivan · red card
87'MalagaJ. Lobete

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sporting Gijon		Malaga
14	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	7
10	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	5
5	Offsides	0
53%	Possession	47%
484	Passes	447
421	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sporting Gijon 1.54 · Malaga 1.08. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Sporting Gijon 14 · Malaga 13; on target 3 and 7.

Referee

Alejandro Morilla Turrion, Spain→

5.25

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.4%: “Sporting Gijon to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.54 for Sporting Gijon, 0.93 for Malaga.
The highest double chance value is 78.8% (1X — Sporting Gijon win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,601 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sporting Gijon to win51.4%

Draw27.4%

Malaga to win21.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	4

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Sporting Gijon lead at half-time28.8%

Level at half-time48.9%

Malaga lead at half-time22.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Sporting Gijon ahead or level77.7%

12 — not level at half-time51.1%

X2 — level or Malaga ahead71.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1601 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sporting Gijon: at least 12Actual: 11
Malaga: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Sporting Gijon: at least 4Actual: 5
Malaga: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sporting Gijon score1.54

Attack: Sporting Gijon score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Malaga's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Malaga score1.08

Attack: Malaga score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sporting Gijon's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–012.4%2–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.