Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 19

Burgos–Zaragoza

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 21 December 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal de El Plantío, Burgos

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

37'BurgosDavid González (assist: F. Miguel)
90'ZaragozaS. Bakis (assist: R. Guti)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Burgos		Zaragoza
9	Shots	17
4	Shots on target	6
5	Shots inside the box	8
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	7
1	Offsides	0
41%	Possession	59%
337	Passes	482
264	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Burgos 1.34 · Zaragoza 0.92. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Burgos 9 · Zaragoza 17; on target 4 and 6.
Zaragoza kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Daniel Palencia Caballero, Spain→

5.71

yellows per match

0.43

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.8%: “Burgos to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.24 for Burgos, 0.82 for Zaragoza.
The highest double chance value is 76.9% (1X — Burgos win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,592 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Burgos to win45.8%

Draw31.1%

Zaragoza to win23.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Burgos lead at half-time41.6%

Level at half-time45.3%

Zaragoza lead at half-time13.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Burgos ahead or level86.9%

12 — not level at half-time54.7%

X2 — level or Zaragoza ahead58.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1592 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Burgos: at least 13Actual: 13
Zaragoza: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

Burgos: at least 4Actual: 5
Zaragoza: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Burgos score1.34

Attack: Burgos score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Zaragoza's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Zaragoza score0.92

Attack: Zaragoza score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Burgos concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.92 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–015.2%1–114.9%0–012.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.