Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 19

Granada CF–Albacete

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 21 December 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Carmenes, Granada

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'Granada CFJosé Arnáiz (assist: S. Faye)
73'AlbaceteJefté Betancor (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Granada CF		Albacete
18	Shots	13
5	Shots on target	4
13	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	5
2	Offsides	0
57%	Possession	43%
427	Passes	329
359	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Granada CF 1.73 · Albacete 1.03. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Granada CF 18 · Albacete 13; on target 5 and 4.
Granada CF kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

German Cid Camacho, Spain→

6.43

yellows per match

0.43

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.5%: “Granada CF to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for Granada CF, 1.02 for Albacete.
The highest double chance value is 75.4% (1X — Granada CF win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,592 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Granada CF to win47.5%

Draw28.0%

Albacete to win24.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	12

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Granada CF lead at half-time45.6%

Level at half-time42.0%

Albacete lead at half-time12.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Granada CF ahead or level87.5%

12 — not level at half-time58.0%

X2 — level or Albacete ahead54.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1592 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Granada CF: at least 11Actual: 12
Albacete: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Granada CF: at least 5Actual: 6
Albacete: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Granada CF score1.73

Attack: Granada CF score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Albacete concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.73 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Albacete score1.03

Attack: Albacete score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Granada CF's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–011.4%2–110.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.