Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 19

Real Sociedad II–AD Ceuta FC

1–3

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 21 December 2025 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 36%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'Real Sociedad IIAlex Garcia (assist: A. Mariezkurrena)
43'AD Ceuta FCKuki
50'AD Ceuta FCK. Kone (assist: Y. Didi)
70'AD Ceuta FCJamelli (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Sociedad II		AD Ceuta FC
8	Shots	19
5	Shots on target	7
7	Shots inside the box	13
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	6
4	Offsides	2
45%	Possession	55%
350	Passes	420
251	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Sociedad II 1.38 · AD Ceuta FC 1.12. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Real Sociedad II 8 · AD Ceuta FC 19; on target 5 and 7.
AD Ceuta FC kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Andres Fuentes Molina, Spain→

5.50

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.9%: “AD Ceuta FC to win”. Second comes “Real Sociedad II to win” at 34.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.15 for Real Sociedad II, 1.19 for AD Ceuta FC.
The highest double chance value is 69.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,590 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Sociedad II to win34.0%

Draw30.2%

AD Ceuta FC to win35.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	14

5	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Real Sociedad II lead at half-time40.1%

Level at half-time42.5%

AD Ceuta FC lead at half-time17.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Real Sociedad II ahead or level82.6%

12 — not level at half-time57.5%

X2 — level or AD Ceuta FC ahead59.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1590 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Real Sociedad II: at least 14Actual: 16
AD Ceuta FC: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

Real Sociedad II: at least 4Actual: 3
AD Ceuta FC: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Sociedad II score1.38

Attack: Real Sociedad II score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AD Ceuta FC's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AD Ceuta FC score1.12

Attack: AD Ceuta FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Real Sociedad II's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%0–110.6%1–010.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.