Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 19

Las Palmas–Cultural Leonesa

4–0

HT 4–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 December 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'Las PalmasEnrique Clemente (assist: Mika Màrmol)
19'Las PalmasJesé (assist: Sergio Barcia)
28'Las PalmasManu Fuster (assist: Pejiño)
39'Las PalmasJesé (assist: Manu Fuster)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Las Palmas		Cultural Leonesa
10	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	0
4	Corners	4
2	Offsides	2
48%	Possession	52%
494	Passes	536
441	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Las Palmas 1.27 · Cultural Leonesa 0.69. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Las Palmas 10 · Cultural Leonesa 13; on target 4 and 3.

Referee

Manuel Jesus Orellana Cid, Spain→

5.75

yellows per match

0.75

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.8%: “Las Palmas to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.60 for Las Palmas, 0.79 for Cultural Leonesa.
The highest double chance value is 83.1% (1X — Las Palmas win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,588 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Las Palmas to win56.8%

Draw26.4%

Cultural Leonesa to win16.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 4–0

Las Palmas lead at half-time48.0%

Level at half-time42.7%

Cultural Leonesa lead at half-time9.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Las Palmas ahead or level90.7%

12 — not level at half-time57.3%

X2 — level or Cultural Leonesa ahead52.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1588 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Las Palmas: at least 12Actual: 11
Cultural Leonesa: at least 14Actual: 13

Corners

Las Palmas: at least 4Actual: 4
Cultural Leonesa: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Las Palmas score1.27

Attack: Las Palmas score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cultural Leonesa's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cultural Leonesa score0.69

Attack: Cultural Leonesa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Las Palmas concede 43% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.69 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.1%1–113.2%2–012.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.